WHAT THE WEALTH OF NATIONS INDEX IN 2026 REVEALS ABOUT THE BALTIC STATES

06/12/2026 CPI analysis in cooperation with the Warsaw Enterprise Institute.

Full results and the interactive ranking: wni.wei.org.pl

Lithuania remains among the world’s most efficient countries in turning resources into tangible benefits for citizens, according to the Wealth of Nations Index (WNI) 2026. The country ranks 23rd among 40 developed economies, maintaining its position from last year and outperforming its Baltic neighbours.

Unlike traditional measures such as GDP, the WNI evaluates both the strength of the private economy and how effectively governments convert public spending into outcomes that improve citizens’ quality of life.

According to Dr. Remigijus Šimašius, Senior Policy Advisor at the Centenary Policy Institute and Partnership Professor at Vilnius University, the Baltic states have demonstrated that prosperity depends not only on spending levels but also on efficiency.

“The Wealth of Nations Index shows that countries do not need the largest public sectors to deliver strong results. Lithuania and the other Baltic states have proven capable of transforming relatively limited resources into quality public services, economic growth, and a secure environment for citizens and businesses,” says Dr. Šimašius.

About the Index

The Wealth of Nations Index is an international project developed by the Warsaw Enterprise Institute in cooperation with partner think tanks from around the world. The 2026 edition covers 40 economies from the European Union, the OECD, and Ukraine, measuring both private-sector value creation and the quality of public services in areas such as defence, security, infrastructure, healthcare, education, and environmental protection.

The bigger picture is unflattering

In most of the countries surveyed - 27 out of 40 - citizens got less value for their public money in 2026 than they did a decade earlier. Budgets swelled; results did not keep pace.

The slide set in after the pandemic. Having broadly improved up to 2021, the quality of public spending has since gone into reverse across much of the sample, even as private-sector growth has roughly halved and, in more than a dozen economies, turned negative.

At the very top, the United States, Norway and Switzerland again set the pace, pairing large private economies with broadly capable states. The real momentum, though, belongs to the catching-up economies of Central and Eastern Europe - Romania above all, with Croatia, Bulgaria and Greece close behind.

Poland is a case study in the same paradox. Its economy has slowed noticeably even as the public sector keeps expanding. The causes are many, but analysts point in particular to the instability of the law and the mounting burden on the bureaucratic apparatus - including a deregulation effort that has never gone far enough. They add that the tax system grows more tangled and unpredictable by the year, as sectoral levies multiply and excise duties are raised with little or no warning.

The Baltic Success Story Continues

The WNI confirms that Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia continue to converge with Western European living standards. Estonia remains a regional leader in digital governance, education, and cybersecurity, while Latvia stands out for its strong commitment to national security.

At the same time, all three countries face similar challenges, including small domestic markets, export dependence, and insufficient investment in innovation.

Lithuania Leads the Baltic States

Lithuania achieves the highest overall ranking among the Baltic states, supported by a strong private sector, investment activity, and capital formation. The country performs particularly well in national security, internal stability, and digital infrastructure—areas that have become increasingly important in today’s geopolitical environment.

The Index also identifies several areas requiring further attention, including transport infrastructure, regional disparities, and healthcare efficiency.

Latvia’s WNI Results: Security and Stability

Latvia ranks 31st globally in the Wealth of Nations Index 2025, reflecting steady long-term economic convergence with Western Europe. The country combines solid GDP per capita growth with efficient use of public resources, achieving 62.9 points in the Public Spending Quality Index (25th globally).

Latvia performs particularly well in internal security and public safety, providing a stable environment for citizens and businesses. While the country continues to benefit from disciplined fiscal governance and a strong commitment to national security, future progress will depend on addressing infrastructure gaps, increasing investment in innovation and research, and reducing reliance on external demand. With sustained reforms, Latvia remains well positioned to continue its catch-up journey among Europe’s more prosperous economies.

Estonia’s Performance in the Wealth of Nations Index 2026

Estonia ranks 26th globally in the Wealth of Nations Index 2026, remaining one of the strongest performers in Central and Eastern Europe despite a slight decline in its overall position. The country continues to excel in public-sector efficiency, ranking among the global leaders in digital governance, education, cybersecurity, and public service delivery.

Estonia also records one of the highest scores in internal stability, providing a predictable and secure environment for citizens and businesses. However, the Index highlights challenges related to healthcare disparities, transport connectivity outside major urban centres, and the economy’s vulnerability to external shocks due to its strong dependence on exports.

Maintaining Estonia’s competitive edge will require continued investment in innovation, infrastructure, and productivity growth.

The Next Stage of Growth

Dr. Šimašius warns that future success will depend on the ability to move beyond cost-based competitiveness.

“The next stage of growth will require higher productivity, stronger innovation, and greater investment in research and development. To continue closing the gap with the world’s wealthiest economies, the Baltic states must increasingly compete through knowledge and technology rather than lower costs.”

For expert commentary or to arrange an interview about the Wealth of Nations Index 2026, journalists are warmly invited to contact the Warsaw Enterprise Institute. Our analysts are available to discuss the findings in detail.