WHAT THE WEALTH OF NATIONS INDEX IN 2026 REVEALS ABOUT THE BALTIC STATES

06/10/2026 CPI analysis in cooperation with the Warsaw Enterprise Institute

Lithuania Holds Twenty-Third Worldwide by Turning a Lean Public Sector Into High-Value Services  |  Wealth of Nations Index 2026

Lithuania holds twenty-third place in the Wealth of Nations Index 2026. It keeps its rank after a small gain. It squeezes more value from a lean state than its neighbours do.

The Wealth of Nations Index (WNI), now in its sixth edition, is the Warsaw Enterprise Institute's answer to GDP, built this year with 20 think tanks from across the world. It covers 40 economies - essentially the members of the European Union and the OECD, plus Ukraine. Where GDP treats every unit of spending as equally valuable, the WNI does something more demanding: it sets the size of the private economy alongside a separate measure of how much citizens actually get back from the state across seven areas - defence, internal security, infrastructure, the environment, healthcare, schooling and higher education.

Lithuania converts one of the EU's leanest public sectors into high-value services, outdoing its Baltic and Central European neighbours on sheer efficiency. National and external security are exceptional strengths; physical infrastructure bottlenecks and uneven healthcare access are the drags. The challenge ahead is to shift from cost-based competition to innovation-led growth before the convergence story runs out.

Key takeaways

•   Finishes 23rd of 40, unchanged.

•   Outperforms its neighbours on public-spending quality.

•   Strengths: national security and digital infrastructure; weaknesses: physical infrastructure and healthcare.

•   One of the fastest converging economies in the region.

Latvia Eases to Twenty-Eighth Worldwide While Pouring Money Into Security  |Wealth of Nations Index 2026

Latvia falls one place to twenty-eighth in the Wealth of Nations Index 2026. It lost a little ground over the year. Its standout contribution is national security.

The Wealth of Nations Index (WNI), now in its sixth edition, is the Warsaw Enterprise Institute's answer to GDP, built this year with 20 think tanks from across the world. It covers 40 economies - essentially the members of the European Union and the OECD, plus Ukraine. Where GDP treats every unit of spending as equally valuable, the WNI does something more demanding: it sets the size of the private economy alongside a separate measure of how much citizens actually get back from the state across seven areas - defence, internal security, infrastructure, the environment, healthcare, schooling and higher education.

Latvia's defining strength is security: defence spending is among the highest in NATO, with a pledge to go higher still. But the state's score is held back by underinvestment in healthcare, regional inequality and infrastructure gaps, while the private economy stays exposed to external shocks and short of capital depth. Future convergence hinges on productivity, innovation and keeping talent at home.

Key takeaways

•  Falls one place to 28th of 40.

•  Strength: national security (among NATO's top defence spenders); weakness: healthcare.

•  Persistent demographic decline and limited R&D.

•  Still converging gradually with Western Europe.

Estonia Drops Two Places to Twenty-Sixth Worldwide Despite a Top-Tier Public Sector  |  Wealth of Nations Index 2026

Estonia falls two places to twenty-sixth in the Wealth of Nations Index 2026. A tougher external environment cost it ground. Its public sector remains one of the most efficient in the region.

The Wealth of Nations Index (WNI), now in its sixth edition, is the Warsaw Enterprise Institute's answer to GDP, built this year with 20 think tanks from across the world. It covers 40 economies - essentially the members of the European Union and the OECD, plus Ukraine. Where GDP treats every unit of spending as equally valuable, the WNI does something more demanding: it sets the size of the private economy alongside a separate measure of how much citizens actually get back from the state across seven areas - defence, internal security, infrastructure, the environment, healthcare, schooling and higher education.

Estonia dips this year but still runs one of Europe's most efficient states, built on highly digitised administration, serious cybersecurity and rising defence spending. The drags are regional disparities in healthcare and transport outside the main cities. Its private economy is entrepreneurial and start-up-rich, but small and exposed to the swings of external demand.

Key takeaways

•  Falls two places to 26th of 40.

•  Among the region's best on public-spending quality.

•  Strengths: digital governance, cybersecurity and defence.

•  A small, entrepreneurial private economy sensitive to external shocks.

Further information

The bigger picture is unflattering. In most of the countries surveyed - 27 out of 40 - citizens got less value for their public money in 2026 than they did a decade earlier. Budgets swelled; results did not keep pace.

The slide set in after the pandemic. Having broadly improved up to 2021, the quality of public spending has since gone into reverse across much of the sample, even as private-sector growth has roughly halved and, in more than a dozen economies, turned negative.

At the very top, the United States, Norway and Switzerland again set the pace, pairing large private economies with broadly capable states. The real momentum, though, belongs to the catching-up economies of Central and Eastern Europe - Romania above all, with Croatia, Bulgaria and Greece close behind.

Poland is a case study in the same paradox. Its economy has slowed noticeably even as the public sector keeps expanding. The causes are many, but analysts point in particular to the instability of the law and the mounting burden on the bureaucratic apparatus - including a deregulation effort that has never gone far enough. They add that the tax system grows more tangled and unpredictable by the year, as sectoral levies multiply and excise duties are raised with little or no warning.

Full results and the interactive ranking: wni.wei.org.pl

For expert commentary or to arrange an interview about the Wealth of Nations Index 2026, journalists are warmly invited to contact the Warsaw Enterprise Institute. Our analysts are available to discuss the findings in detail.